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Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by...?
The Field
3§ Market context
About this market
Traders currently see December 31, 2027 as the leading outcome, at a 38% probability across 3 listed outcomes. Over the past 24 hours, the leading outcome's probability has moved down 5 percentage points. The market has traded approximately $1.13M in volume as of the latest update. It is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2028.
- Status
- Live trading
- Leading outcome
- December 31, 2027 (38%)
- Volume
- $1.13M
- Liquidity
- $26.93K
- Resolution date
- January 1, 2028
- Outcomes
- 3
- Last updated
- October 23, 2026
Rules and resolution
If the Doge-1 12U Lunar Cube satellite successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the satellite with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.
Resolution source: https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX
Data source and freshness
Odds, volume, and liquidity come from live Polymarket order books. Prices update continuously while trading is open; the figures above reflect the most recent refresh. Probabilities are market prices — what traders collectively pay for a $1 payout if the outcome occurs — not editorial forecasts.
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Prediction-market prices can move quickly and past probabilities do not guarantee outcomes. Nothing on this page is financial advice.