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Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place
The Field
5 of 19§ Market context
About this market
Traders currently see Renan Santos as the leading outcome, at a 42% probability across 32 listed outcomes. Over the past 24 hours, the leading outcome's probability has moved down 8 percentage points. The market has traded approximately $1.39M in volume as of the latest update. It is scheduled to resolve by July 1, 2027.
- Status
- Live trading
- Leading outcome
- Renan Santos (42%)
- Volume
- $1.39M
- Liquidity
- $589.00K
- Resolution date
- July 1, 2027
- Outcomes
- 32
- Last updated
- September 22, 2026
Rules and resolution
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Data source and freshness
Odds, volume, and liquidity come from live Polymarket order books. Prices update continuously while trading is open; the figures above reflect the most recent refresh. Probabilities are market prices — what traders collectively pay for a $1 payout if the outcome occurs — not editorial forecasts.
Related markets
Prediction-market prices can move quickly and past probabilities do not guarantee outcomes. Nothing on this page is financial advice.