Knoww
Will Claude go down on __ days in September?
The Field
5§ Market context
About this market
Traders currently see 5-7 as the leading outcome, at a 76% probability across 5 listed outcomes. Over the past 24 hours, the leading outcome's probability has moved up 4 percentage points. The market has traded approximately $17.36K in volume as of the latest update. It is scheduled to resolve by October 1, 2026.
- Status
- Live trading
- Leading outcome
- 5-7 (76%)
- Volume
- $17.36K
- Liquidity
- $7.79K
- Resolution date
- October 1, 2026
- Outcomes
- 5
- Last updated
- September 22, 2026
Rules and resolution
This market will resolve according to the number of days in September 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime. Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution. A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun. This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Data source and freshness
Odds, volume, and liquidity come from live Polymarket order books. Prices update continuously while trading is open; the figures above reflect the most recent refresh. Probabilities are market prices — what traders collectively pay for a $1 payout if the outcome occurs — not editorial forecasts.
Related markets
Prediction-market prices can move quickly and past probabilities do not guarantee outcomes. Nothing on this page is financial advice.