Knoww
Iowa Senate Election Winner
The Field
2§ Market context
About this market
Traders currently see Ashley Hinson (R) as the leading outcome, at a 55% probability across 13 listed outcomes. Over the past 24 hours, the leading outcome's probability has moved down 6 percentage points. The market has traded approximately $487.40K in volume as of the latest update. It is scheduled to resolve by November 3, 2026.
- Status
- Live trading
- Leading outcome
- Ashley Hinson (R) (55%)
- Volume
- $487.40K
- Liquidity
- $203.77K
- Resolution date
- November 3, 2026
- Outcomes
- 13
- Last updated
- September 22, 2026
Rules and resolution
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Iowa U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Data source and freshness
Odds, volume, and liquidity come from live Polymarket order books. Prices update continuously while trading is open; the figures above reflect the most recent refresh. Probabilities are market prices — what traders collectively pay for a $1 payout if the outcome occurs — not editorial forecasts.
Related markets
Prediction-market prices can move quickly and past probabilities do not guarantee outcomes. Nothing on this page is financial advice.