Knoww
Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027?
§ Market context
About this market
Traders currently assign a 83% probability to No on this market. This is the live price of the leading outcome, and it moves as traders buy and sell. Over the past 24 hours, the leading outcome's probability has moved down 5 percentage points. The market has traded approximately $207.93K in volume as of the latest update. It is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027.
- Status
- Live trading
- Leading outcome
- No (83%)
- Volume
- $207.93K
- Liquidity
- $29.73K
- Resolution date
- January 1, 2027
- Last updated
- September 22, 2026
Rules and resolution
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Chinese General Zhang Youxia is sentenced to any time in jail/prison for any charges by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will remain open through December 31, 2026 or until Zhang Youxia is sentenced to time in jail/prison, regardless of any initial sentencing that does not include prison. Any sentencing will qualify, regardless of subsequent appeals or changes to the sentence. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Chinese government and law enforcement; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Data source and freshness
Odds, volume, and liquidity come from live Polymarket order books. Prices update continuously while trading is open; the figures above reflect the most recent refresh. Probabilities are market prices — what traders collectively pay for a $1 payout if the outcome occurs — not editorial forecasts.
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Prediction-market prices can move quickly and past probabilities do not guarantee outcomes. Nothing on this page is financial advice.